What the RBA analysis shows
According to an analysis by Mike Major for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), AI is so far barely displacing employment in Australia's labour market. The monitoring focused on new entrants and occupations with high AI exposure, such as programmers, office workers and customer service staff.
Since the start of ChatGPT at the end of 2022, the analysis shows job advertisements falling in all groups, most sharply in the highest exposure group. There, 15- to 24-year-olds and young graduates show weaker employment figures and higher unemployment than older workers.
Limitations
Major warns against premature conclusions: the study does not establish direct causation and measures theoretical potential rather than actual use in firms. Post-pandemic economic or remote-work trends could also be driving the numbers. According to SEEK data, AI supports existing work and at the same time creates new demand for AI skills.
Comparable findings
A Stanford study based on millions of US wage records from August 2025 reaches a similar result: employment of 22- to 25-year-olds in AI-exposed occupations fell by 13 percent in relative terms since the end of 2022, and by nearly 20 percent for young software developers. Experienced colleagues in the same occupations remained stable or grew.
An Anthropic study from March 2026 found signs of declining hiring of 22- to 25-year-old workers in exposed occupations, with the job-finding rate down by around 14 percent. Anthropic did not find a systematic rise in overall unemployment.
Background
An analysis of 10.6 million LinkedIn profiles and US unemployment data from January 2026 cautions against attributing the deterioration to AI alone. According to the research team led by Morgan Frank (University of Pittsburgh), problems in exposed occupations began as early as early 2022, months before the ChatGPT launch. Macroeconomic factors such as the US Federal Reserve's change in interest rates may play a larger role than previously assumed.
Assessment
If the finding holds, it could mean for companies that entry into the profession becomes harder for young specialists, potentially leading to a future shortage of experienced staff. It remains open how strongly AI is actually being deployed and how much of the trend stems from other factors.
Sources
Editorially owned by Ideal Syka. Sources and method: Newsroom & method. Tips and corrections: ai@i6eal.de.
